Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
